Northeast Gulf Of Mexico Tropical Development Prospects (Invest 90L):
I am closely monitoring an area of low pressure that is located early this morning over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. This low pressure system is forecast to track southward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the south of the Alabama coastline during the day today and has the potential to spin up into a tropical storm as early as Thursday or Friday. Whatever becomes of this low pressure system, it will bring heavy rainfall with squally weather to coastal sections of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today through Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across southernmost Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle today.
Let me explain what caused this low pressure system to develop over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle: The mid-level circulation from Isaac split off a couple of days ago and tracked southward. This mid-level circulation is now interacting with an upper level low pressure system that is currently located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This interaction caused a brand new low pressure system to develop yesterday morning over northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. This low pressure system slowly tracked south-southeastward across Alabama yesterday afternoon into last night and is currently located over southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle this morning. So, since this is a brand new low pressure system, if it spins up into a tropical storm, it will get a new name which would be Nadine.
The forecast guidance are all in pretty good agreement that this low pressure system will track southward over the next couple of days getting as far south as 27.5 North Latitude on Friday before a trough of low pressure lifts it east-northeastward across northern Florida by Saturday night and Sunday and then out into the open Atlantic by early next week.
So, here are my thoughts on this potential system: I think we will see this low pressure system gradually track into the northernmost Gulf of Mexico just offshore of Mobile Bay by late this morning and then track south or south-southeast across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Thursday and into Friday. I used the high resolution mesoscale model guidance rather than the global models for this forecast as its higher grid resolution may be able to pick out minute details of how this system may develop. Based on my analysis of the high resolution forecast guidance, it seems possible that this low pressure system will be located near 29 North Latitude and 87.5 West Longitude by early Thursday morning; in fact, the 4 km NAM model shows 40 to 45 mph maximum winds by tomorrow morning associated with this system. I think this may be a little aggressive, however, development into a tropical depression is quite possible during Thursday with strengthening into a tropical storm in the realm of possibility by Friday. I do agree that a trough of low pressure will pull this potential tropical storm across northern Florida by Saturday night and Sunday.
Heavy rainfall will be the main threat from this system with additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches likely across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle today. For Thursday, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. For Friday through Saturday, additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible from southern Alabama eastward across the Florida Panhandle, much of northern Florida and southern Georgia.
~ Rob Lightbrown, Crown Weather Services
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