As I mentioned a couple of days ago, we needed to watch a developing tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific for development in the Caribbean. Well, it looks like a rather historic event may unfold today as Tropical Depression Barbara is currently crossing over a rather flat area of land in southeastern Mexico and is expected to completely emerge in the Bay of Campeche by a little later this morning. Satellite imagery early this morning showed deep convection firing on the north side of Barbara over the Bay of Campeche and I do think we will see our first tropical depression and very possibly our first tropical storm of the season today. The strange part is that it will keep the name Barbara as advisories have not been discontinued by the National Hurricane Center and also the circulation of the cyclone has not opened up and remains rather vigorous. So, we may have Barbara in the Atlantic before Andrea.
Now, the question is where may Barbara go and how much may it intensify once it gets into the Bay of Campeche. First thing is that Barbara is tracking quicker than most of the forecast guidance by about 6 to 8 hours and the only real model that is showing a somewhat distinct circulation in the Bay of Campeche is the HWRF model and this model only shows a broad weak circulation that hangs around the Bay of Campeche or the western Gulf of Mexico right through this weekend and into early next week. The consensus track guidance also shows this scenario of a track into the western Gulf of Mexico by this weekend and then be just a couple of hundred miles offshore of Tampico, Mexico by Monday.
This is currently my thinking on a possible track: Into the Bay of Campeche sometime this morning and then slowly track north-northwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico through this weekend and be located just offshore of Tampico by Monday. My thinking is supported by the upper level wind flow which is south-southeasterly across southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche right into much of the Gulf of Mexico.
As for intensity, most of the intensity guidance keeps this system as a tropical depression for the next several days and this is likely due to the fact that wind shear values are pretty strong over much of the Gulf of Mexico. The exception is in an area around the Bay of Campeche where wind shear values are currently 10 to 20 knots. The exception is the SHIPS intensity guidance which forecasts Barbara to remain a tropical depression for the next couple of days but intensify into a tropical storm by this weekend and be a 50 mph tropical storm offshore of Tampico by early next week. I have to kind of agree with the SHIPS guidance but I’m leaning more conservatively with a peak intensity of a 40 to 45 mph tropical storm by Monday.
I will be monitoring things very closely with Barbara today and will likely try and write an update later today, especially, if we do indeed have a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche.
Longer range guidance continues to point to yet another tropical system to develop in the Gulf of Mexico late next week, separate from Barbara. This other potential tropical system could bring heavy rainfall from Florida to North Carolina from late next week into the weekend of June 8th and 9th. In fact, the latest European model guidance continues to show a east weighted tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in about 9 to 10 days from now, meaning all of the heavy rain and strong winds would be on the eastern side while the west side of the storm is essentially rain-free.
Now, back to Barbara, heavy rainfall with flooding and mud slides are likely across southeastern Mexico and Central America from today right into this weekend and this heavy rainfall threat may spread northward into central and possibly northeastern Mexico by early next week.
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