In today’s tropical weather analysis, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is monitoring/tracking three tropical waves.
The wave that was south of western Cuba in the western Caribbean is has been dropped from the analysis as it is no longer discernable.
The first wave is located over the western Caribbean extending south from western Cuba to the southwest Caribbean. The wave is moving west at 15 – 20 knots. Most of the convection is around Cuba and the southwest Caribbean.
The second tropical wave is located few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles from the northeast coast of South America northward. The wave is moving west northwestward at around 15 – 20 knots. Cloudiness and thundershowers have increased during the day in the area. There is broad circulation with the feature. The 850 mb vorticity is not as elongated as yesterday and appears little stronger/more defined. However, vorticity has weakened slightly and become more elongated in the last few hours.
Satellite images show the classic inverted V structure to the cloud field. The NHC is giving the system a low (0%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
The major hindrance is going to be strong westerly wind shear of approximately 20 – 40 knots over the area. There is an area of less than 20 knots of wind shear near the northeast coast of South America. The feature may be labeled as an invest in the next day or so if further development occurs. An invest is just a disturbance that is monitored for potential development. It does not necessarily mean it will become a tropical cyclone. It allows for additional data to be gathered and other forecast models to be run on it.
The third tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic off the coast of West Africa. The wave is moving west at 5 – 10 mph. The wave is rather ill defined at the surface with little weather accompanying it. There is weak 850 mb vorticity associated with it.
Below is the surface analysis of the tropical Atlantic for this afternoon.
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