Atlantic will remain “shut-down for business”

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet with no areas of interest. Areas of convection have been tracking off of the Texas coast into the western Gulf of Mexico over the last couple of days. While some of them look “interesting”, they are running into an environment that is not favorable for development.

Other than that, I think we may go the entire month of July without a named storm as the Atlantic will remain “shut-down for business”. The next chance for potential development, I believe, will be sometime between August 1st and August 10th as the upward motion pulse of the Madden Julian Oscillation rotates back into the Atlantic. If I were to place an area to really watch those first ten days of August, I’d place my watch area across the far northwestern Caribbean into the southernmost Gulf of Mexico.

I have really been keeping close tabs on how our current pattern fits into what has occurred in the past (called analog years). Some past years really stand out to me as potential analog years once we get into August and September. These years include 1954 (I noticed that many of the record high temperatures set across the United States over the past week were last set in 1954), 1955, 1989, 1998 and 2003.

So, the areas I think really to watch as we get into August and September will be two areas: (1) From South Carolina northward to southern New England and (2) From Mississippi and Louisiana westward to the Texas coast. Additionally, I think this season will continue to feature close-in or “homebrew” type development rather than the long-tracked Cape Verde type storms. These “homebrew” storms can be especially dangerous as they give little time to prepare given the proximity to the coastline.

Crown Weather Hurricane Threat Map For August & September:

What most of these analog years have in common is that they featured a significant US East Coast hurricane threat, especially from North and South Carolina northward to New England. Some of these years also had hurricane threats over either the central or western Gulf Coast.

So, this is definitely something to keep in mind once we get into August and September.


~ Rob Lightbrown
Crown Weather Services