An area of low pressure, designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center, was located a little over 1000 miles to the east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is worth, at least, to be monitored over the next several days as it tracks west-northwestward. At this time, environmental conditions will be relatively unfavorable for development over the next few days, however, forecast guidance such as the GFS model forecasts that conditions may become more favorable as 98L nears the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late this weekend into early next week.
As for the forecast guidance: The GFS and European models both seem to suggest development into a tropical storm in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday or Monday. From there this system tracks to near the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas by the middle part of next week.
The Canadian model goes absolutely bonkers and forecasts this system to impact the Windward Islands and Barbados as a moderate tropical storm by Thursday night and then forecasts this system to significantly intensify into a hurricane and turn northward impacting much of the islands of the Leeward Islands on Friday into Saturday and bringing hurricane conditions to the Virgin Islands by Saturday night.
I think the Canadian model is way too strong with its development and strengthening and that the GFS and European model guidance may be closer to what may occur. With all of this said, I strongly suggest that all residents and vacationers in the Lesser Antilles and the island of Barbados to keep close tabs on the progress of this system. Based on the current forward speed of 15 mph this system is likely to start impacting the Lesser Antilles by Thursday night with squally weather continuing into Friday. I think at the very least heavy rain squalls, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and rough seas can be expected for Thursday night and Friday along the entire island chain of the Lesser Antilles. This squally weather is then expected to spread across the US and British Virgin Islands as we get into Saturday.
I am keeping close tabs on Invest 98L and I will have updated information as conditions warrant.
~Rob Lightbrown, Crown Weather
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