All the forecast guidance continues to strongly point to the potential for some sort of tropical development next week in the western and southwestern Caribbean. This potential system is currently forecast to form between the combination of a old frontal boundary tracking across the northwestern Caribbean and some moisture & energy being injected by a westward tracking tropical wave that is now located over the eastern Caribbean just southeast of Puerto Rico.
The forecast guidance has some timing differences on when this possible system will spin-up into a tropical cyclone:
The GFS model forecasts right around Wednesday or Thursday just east of Jamaica with a track northeastward across eastern Cuba and Haiti and then across the southeastern Bahamas by next Friday.
The European model forecasts development as early as Tuesday in the far southwestern Caribbean with a track across Jamaica by Thursday and then across eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas by next Friday.
The Canadian model spins up this potential system even quicker by Monday morning just south of Jamaica and then forecasts this to intensify into possibly a hurricane very near Jamaica by Wednesday. From there, the Canadian model forecasts a northerly track across eastern Cuba and then across much of the Bahamas by Thursday as a hurricane.
The experimental FIM model seems to be in the middle of the GFS, European and Canadian model forecasts and shows development of a tropical system in the deep southwest Caribbean on Tuesday night. The FIM model forecasts a track that takes it just east of Jamaica on Thursday morning of next week and then across eastern Cuba and Haiti by Thursday evening. From there, the FIM model forecasts a track across the southeastern Bahamas next Friday.
So, at this point, it looks like there will be some sort of development of a tropical system in the western and southwestern Caribbean as early as Monday or as late as Wednesday or Thursday of next week. My thinking right now is for a Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe for development to the south of Jamaica near 14 or 15 North Latitude. The upper-level pattern for next week points to a north-northeast to northeast track which should keep this system away from Florida and the southeastern United States.
Those of you vacationing or living in Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Bahamas should keep tabs on this possible development. At the very least, this system is likely to bring several days of heavy rainfall to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Haiti, and the Bahamas next week into early next weekend.
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