Satellite imagery early this morning showed the remnants of Debby located just to the northwest of Bermuda. What is left of Debby will continue to track northeastward and I expect no additional development from these remnants as they track into the open Atlantic this weekend.
Satellite imagery early this morning also showed a rather vigorous tropical wave located about 1100 miles to the east of the Windward Islands. Even though this tropical wave is pretty vigorous in its structure, the shower and thunderstorm activity was disorganized this morning. This tropical wave is currently tracking in a general westward direction and is expected to affect much of the Lesser Antilles from St. Martin, Antigua and Guadeloupe southward to Trinidad, Tobago and Barbados on Saturday night and Sunday.
Even though this tropical wave is tracking westward and will be in the Caribbean by the end of this weekend, I think the chances of this becoming anything of importance is fairly low. The reason why is because it is expected to run into much higher wind shear values as it enters the Caribbean. Wind shear values from Jamaica to the Lesser Antilles are running at 30 to 40 knots and this will put a stop to any tropical development.
Other than that, the long range guidance such as the GFS model and the European model show that things will be very quiet across the Atlantic basin for the next couple of weeks. Beyond that, we may have to start looking towards the southwestern Caribbean once again around the middle of July as very long range guidance points to a lowering of barometric pressures there.
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