Early morning analysis shows an area of deep convection very near the Cayman Islands. This convection is being caused by a trough of low pressure that extends from western Cuba to the northwestern coast of Honduras. Additionally, radar loops from western Cuba shows a possible low pressure system developing near the Isle of Pines. Should the low pressure system continue to develop today and that deep convection persists, then I think we will see this system classified as a Invest
All of this activity now in the northwestern Caribbean is expected to push into the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and be located somewhere over the central or west-central Gulf of Mexico by Friday into Saturday. By that time, this system will find itself in a more favorable environment to slowly develop.
The overall forecast guidance has done a complete 180 in its forecast. The GFS ensemble guidance forecasts a low pressure system to be located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday morning while the GFS operational model has the low forecasted to be located to the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
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| GFS Model |
By Sunday morning, the GFS ensemble guidance starts to diverge and is a clear indicator of the uncertainty in the forecast track of this potential tropical entity. The GFS operational model forecasts that this system will track northeastward across northern Florida (instead of a western Gulf system) during the day Sunday.
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| Euro Model |
The Canadian model ends up bringing this storm into the Pensacola, FL area as soon as Monday morning, while the European model is stronger with this Gulf system and forecasts it to head northeastward across north Florida by Monday night into Tuesday.
So, this 180 degree change in the overall forecast guidance and their track of this Gulf system has thrown a monkey wrench into the forecast. These model trends will be watched closely over the coming days. I do think that this will end up becoming Tropical Storm Debby by the weekend and I’m not sure I buy into the 180 degree change in the forecast guidance.
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| Canadian Model |
by Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
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