Satellite imagery and surface analysis clearly shows an area of gradually lowering barometric pressures over the western Caribbean this morning. This broad system is producing heavy thunderstorm activity across the Cayman Islands this morning and is expected to gradually push across the northwestern Caribbean today into Wednesday and then into the Bay of Campeche & western Gulf of Mexico by about Thursday. Once we get into Thursday & Friday, we will really have to watch for potential tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico.
Detailed analysis shows a broad trough of low pressure from the Cayman Islands southwestward to near the north coast of Honduras. There has been an increase in vorticity (the amount of spin in the atmosphere) across the western Caribbean over the past 12 to 24 hours, both at the low-levels and also in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Wind shear analysis shows 15 to 20 knots of shear over the deepest convection near the Cayman Islands with 40 knot shear being reported with the trough of low pressure across the northwestern Caribbean. A majority of the deep convection is being produced by the outflow from the trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean. This upper-level trough is expected to lift out over the next day or two and leave a favorable environment for tropical development from the northwest Caribbean into the western Gulf of Mexico.
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| Computer models are in agreement that a system will try to form somewhere in the western Gulf late this week before heading towards NE Mexico or deep Southern Texas |
The reliable forecast guidance members such as the GFS and European models are forecasting that the tropical development will probably wait until later Thursday and especially on Friday just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The potential track of this system could put it into far northeastern Mexico or deep south Texas on Monday.
It needs to be pointed out that very heavy rainfall with the threat for flooding will begin to affect south Florida today and continue right into this weekend. Total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with local amounts of up to 10 inches are expected over the next several days.
Written by Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
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ANOTHER SYSTEM TRYING TO FORM OFF OF SW MEXICO IN EASTERN PACIFIC
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 200 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico is showing signs of organization. Upper level winds are marginally favorable for development. This system has a high chance of becoming the next depression or tropical storm of the 2012 Eastern Pacific Basin season.
At the moment, computer models show the system will move away from the coastline into cooler waters. We will keep you updated on the progress of this developing system.
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