Overall, the convective pattern of Ernesto has improved overnight and into the early morning hours. Strong convective bursts that have not been seen previously are occurring very near the center of circulation (CoC). In addition, upper level outflow appears to be improving in the NW Quadrant (outflow has been restricted in the entire Western Quadrant the past several days due to Westerly shear). Unfortunately, the latest recon mission was cut short, so we don’t have a very good idea of exactly what’s going on in Ernesto right now. Radar and Microwave imagery also seem to support the idea of increased organization overnight. Via the Puerto Rico radar, deep convection is currently occurring near the CoC. It should be interesting to see how Ernesto’s convective pattern evolves over the next 6-12 hours. First, Ernesto is currently experiencing the most favorable diurnal period for tropical cyclone intensification (Convective bursts overnight can sometimes be deceiving). In addition, the 00Z EURO suggests a decoupling of the low level and mid level circulation during the next 12-24 hours. Only time will tell for sure, but the increased organization tonight suggests the 00z EURO solution may be increasingly unlikely.
Overall, track remains a big question beyond this weekend. The Global Models (GFS, UKMET, CMC, EURO) are clustered along a Yucatan-Mexico track. Meanwhile, the Tropical Models (GFDL, HWRF) suggest a much more northerly track into the Central Gulf of Mexico. The Global Models are typically quite reliable especially when showing such a strong consensus. The only thing leaving question right now is the fact that most of them don’t develop Ernesto into anything more than a Tropical storm. Meanwhile, the Tropical models are much more aggressive with intensity, while showing the more northerly track. They, however, have also had their struggles in the past. The bottom line is the track forecast beyond 3 days remains uncertain but we should have a better idea especially within the next 24 hours
~ Jason Moreland, 28 Stoms
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