The remnants of Tropical Depression #7 were located over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. These remnants were producing showers and thunderstorms across much of the western Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula and parts of Central America. I expect that this system will move into the Bay of Campeche by tonight where it has the potential to become a tropical cyclone this weekend or early next week in the western Gulf of Mexico.
As for this morning’s forecast guidance, the European model seems to agree with the GFS model in developing a tropical cyclone in the western Gulf of Mexico right around the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Now, the GFS model gradually pulls this system inland into northern Mexico and southern Texas by later next week while the European model forecasts a northward track towards southeastern Louisiana by next Friday.
The latest Canadian model guidance also seems to suggest development into a tropical storm by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week and forecasts it to come ashore in south Texas by next Thursday. The experimental FIM model forecasts development into a tropical storm very close to the coast of northeastern Mexico on Monday with the FIM model forecasting it to come ashore right near the Texas-Mexico border on Wednesday.
So, now here are my thoughts: I do think that we will see the remnants of Tropical Depression #7 emerge in the Bay of Campeche sometime before midnight this evening and I think a general west-northwestward track across the Bay of Campeche and towards northeastern Mexico and south Texas seems quite possible this weekend into early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable enough to support tropical storm development sometime between Sunday and Tuesday. I do think that this could be a situation where a tropical storm develops very close to the coast of northern Mexico and south Texas and those of you in south Texas from about Corpus Christi to Brownsville should keep close tabs on this potential during this upcoming weekend.
Heavy rainfall is likely once we get into next week across much of coastal Texas with amounts of up to 3 to 5 inches from Beaumont to Houston and up to 10 to 14 inches from Corpus Christi to Brownsville.
~Rob Lightbrown, Crown Weather Services
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