Reconnaissance information this morning indicates that Isaac has strengthened a little overnight with the most recent central pressure of 1000 millibars. Additionally, the overall center of the storm seems to be slightly south of where the National Hurricane Center is fixing it. Recon messages indicate that they have placed a center near 15.2 North Latitude and 69.87 West Longitude. This is compared to the 5 am NHC position of 16.1 North Latitude, 70.0 West Longitude. This may have some impact on its forecast track over Cuba and I still believe that Isaac will miss tracking over a majority of Hispaniola.
The latest forecast guidance is in very good agreement with two potential US landfalls: The first being in the Florida Keys and the second in the western Florida Panhandle. In the short term, a track to the west or west-northwest seems quite possible given the look of the overall upper level winds. I think the guidance may still be pulling this too quickly to the northwest and a more general turn to the northwest seems more possible. This, I think will cause Isaac to miss Hispaniola to the south and west and cross central Cuba during the day Saturday. From there, a track towards the northwest across the Florida Straits and into the central and lower Florida Keys seems quite plausible this morning and I do think Isaac will be a hurricane when it crosses the Florida Keys on Monday morning.
After crossing the Florida Keys, I think we will see Isaac track northwestward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday into Tuesday before potentially coming ashore in the western Florida Panhandle, I think very near Fort Walton Beach on Tuesday evening as a upper end Category 2 hurricane. As for the forecast guidance: The consensus guidance goes with a landfall near Fort Walton Beach on Tuesday evening. The GFS model guidance forecasts a landfall in the vicinity of Pensacola and Mobile late Tuesday afternoon. The UKMET model forecasts a landfall somewhere in the area of Panama City and Apalachicola on Tuesday evening. The GFS ensemble guidance seems to point to a landfall in the Mobile-Pensacola area on Tuesday evening. Finally, the European model guidance forecasts a landfall just east of Mobile very early Wednesday morning.
I urge residents and vacationers in the Florida Keys and the southwest coast of Florida to get ready today for hurricane conditions which are expected on Sunday night into Monday. Tropical storm conditions can be expected across a large part of western and south Florida, including Tampa and Miami on Sunday night and Monday.
Across the northern Gulf coast, hurricane conditions are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday night from the entire Alabama coast eastward to Panama City in the Florida Panhandle. So, those of you along the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastline, go over your hurricane preparedness supplies today and be ready for when Hurricane Watches & Warnings are issued.
~ Rob Lightbrown, Crown Weather Services
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