Visible satellite loops over the past several hours show that Isaac seems to be getting better organized with an eye like feature showing up from time to time. Additionally, reconnaissance reports have found central pressures of 985 millibars and maximum winds of 73 mph. Should this continue over the next hour or two, I think we will see the National Hurricane Center upgrade Isaac to a hurricane with 75 mph with the 5 pm EDT/4 pm CDT advisory.
Many of the latest forecast guidance members continue to have different ideas on where they want to bring Isaac onshore and its strength at landfall. The consensus track guidance (which I’m going with for my latest forecast track) brings Isaac onshore near New Orleans just after midnight Tuesday night. The most recent forecast of the European model forecasts a landfall in southwestern Mississippi early Wednesday morning as a 85 to 90 mph hurricane. The GFS model forecasts a landfall on Wednesday morning near Morgan City as a 100 mph hurricane. The HWRF model forecasts a landfall in southwestern Mississippi as a 115 to 120 mph Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday morning and finally the GFDL model forecasts a landfall near Vermilion Bay as a 110 mph hurricane on Wednesday morning.
As I already mentioned, I have no change in either where I think Isaac will make landfall or my forecast intensity at the time of landfall. I think Isaac will come ashore very near New Orleans as a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane during the predawn hours of Wednesday morning.
All preparations for this storm should be complete by sunset today as the weather will begin to deteriorate later tonight across the northern Gulf coast with hurricane force winds expected to overspread southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi during Tuesday afternoon and continue through all of Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.
~ Rob Lightbrown, Crown Weather Services
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