I am writing this unscheduled late afternoon update to discuss an area of disturbed weather now located in the Bahamas. This disturbed weather has been designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center. Convection associated with this disturbed weather has increased quite a bit today and while environmental conditions are currently not favorable for development, they may become more favorable this weekend. Given the proximity that this disturbed weather is to the US Southeast and Gulf Coast, it needs to be watched quite closely.
Currently, it appears that some sort of a low-level center has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the western Bahamas. As for a track, I think the track guidance such as the BAM models are incorrect in bringing 91L into the Gulf of Mexico. I think instead that we will see a general northwestward track and for this system to scrape along the east coast of Florida on Saturday from about Port St. Lucie to Daytona Beach. After that, it seems plausible that the upper level winds should take 91L inland into the Carolinas by Sunday into Monday.
Whether 91L becomes a tropical depression or even a tropical storm remains to be seen. I do not foresee this becoming terribly strong and at most perhaps a low-end tropical storm. Even with that, gusty winds and heavy rainfall will likely impact much of Florida’s east coast on Saturday. This weather may move up into north Florida and south Georgia on Sunday.
Whether 91L becomes tropical cyclone or not, it will be watched closely over this weekend.
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